With a booming population and thriving job market, San Bernardino’s small business growth forecast for 2025 reveals exciting opportunities waiting to be discovered.
San Bernardino, California is positioned for robust small business growth by 2025, driven by a projected population increase exceeding 2.24 million and significant job market expansion, particularly in the tech sector, anticipated to grow by 18%. The retail vacancy rate remains below 6%, indicating high demand and potential for new store openings, while healthcare and infrastructure developments promise additional opportunities. Moreover, the regional business climate bolstered by favorable investment incentives and a vibrant entrepreneurial ecosystem enhances the environment for new ventures. This data emphasizes key trends shaping the economic landscape, hinting at further opportunities for exploration ahead.
In San Bernardino County, economic growth is on an upward trajectory, fueled by a combination of new infrastructure projects and a booming housing market. The region's housing trends reflect a significant population increase, with projections indicating that the county will surpass 2.24 million residents by 2026. This demographic expansion correlates with a series of ambitious developments, including the Silverwood project, which aims to introduce approximately 2,000 new homes by early 2025, thereby catering to the escalating housing demand. Furthermore, as the county focuses on economic diversification, it is expected to create new opportunities for entrepreneurs and small business owners.
Moreover, the county's median home price, reported at $396,400 in 2020, has already surged by 18% between early 2020 and early 2021, underscoring the competitive nature of the market. Experts predict that home prices will continue to rise by 7 to 9 percent in 2021, primarily due to the imbalance between high demand and limited supply. This dynamic not only enhances the attractiveness of the area for potential residents but also stimulates economic activity across related sectors, such as retail and services, which in turn creates a robust environment for small businesses poised to capitalize on this growth trajectory.
With a surge in job opportunities, San Bernardino's job market is rapidly evolving, particularly in the tech sector. The region is witnessing an impressive 18% growth rate in tech jobs by 2025, markedly outpacing both state and national averages. Since 2022, over 5,000 new tech positions have emerged, reflecting a robust 12% growth rate, as major companies like Amazon, Esri, and Omnitracs expand local operations. This growth is further supported by infrastructure projects such as Cucamonga Station, which fuel advancements in the tech sector.
In addition to job market trends, the dynamics of workforce diversity are increasingly prominent, as employers seek to cultivate inclusive environments that attract a wider range of talent. The average tech salary currently stands at $88,840 annually, with many positions filled within 36 days, showcasing efficient hiring practices critical to maintaining competitiveness.
Particularly in-demand roles include Cloud Architects, Cybersecurity Engineers, and AI Professionals, with salaries reaching as high as $147,000 for top positions. Moreover, essential skills such as Python, AWS, and machine learning are highly sought after, underscoring the need for candidates to adapt to evolving industry standards. Overall, San Bernardino's job market is positioned for notable growth, driven by technological advancements and strategic workforce initiatives.
San Bernardino's job market isn't just expanding in tech; it's also becoming a vibrant hub for various sectors, each presenting unique opportunities. The retail landscape is experiencing significant shifts, with retail trends indicating high demand for retail space, as evident from the historically low vacancy rates below 6 percent at the end of 2023. Importantly, at least six retail projects exceeding 50,000 square feet are expected to commence in 2024, driven by population growth from developments like Silverwood, which anticipates adding 50,000 residents over the next 15 to 20 years. Additionally, the potential for growth in the region's healthcare sector will further enhance the overall economic landscape.
In parallel, the healthcare sector is poised for substantial healthcare expansion, fueled by increasing demand for services necessitated by the growing population. As economic clusters develop, the healthcare industry will require a thorough workforce training initiative to meet its evolving needs. Furthermore, investments in new facilities and upgrades will not only enhance service delivery but also stimulate local economic activity, creating a synergistic effect that benefits retail and service sectors alike. Therefore, San Bernardino stands at the cusp of diverse sector-specific opportunities, promising a robust economic future that aligns with broader regional growth trends.
Infrastructure developments consistently reshape the economic landscape of San Bernardino, creating new opportunities for growth and connectivity. Recent transportation upgrades, particularly the I-10 Corridor Project, which has introduced tolled express lanes, are poised to notably enhance traffic flow and regional accessibility. Phase 2, commencing in 2025, will extend express lanes further, facilitating more efficient movement between key areas, thereby supporting local businesses reliant on timely logistics.
Moreover, the forthcoming I-215 interchange upgrade, set for October 2024, aims to alleviate congestion, further enhancing connectivity improvements crucial for economic expansion. The West Valley Connector will introduce zero-emission bus rapid transit, linking essential hubs such as Pomona and Ontario International Airport, which can attract new business opportunities by increasing access.
The projected $38.8 billion investment in transportation over the next six years, as outlined in the 2025 Federal Transportation Improvement Program, underscores a strategic commitment to sustainable infrastructure that prioritizes both economic growth and environmental sustainability. Collectively, these developments not only promise immediate job creation—estimated at 120,921 direct jobs annually—but also lay the groundwork for a more interconnected and economically resilient San Bernardino.
The business and investment climate in the Riverside-San Bernardino metro area is showing promising signs of growth, driven by a combination of strong job creation and accessible financing options. Ranking 22nd among 200 U.S. metros in the Milken Institute's "Best Performing Cities" index for 2022, the region benefits from significant investment incentives and a robust financial ecosystem, evidenced by its 1st decile ranking for venture capital and foreign direct investment.
While business regulations may pose some challenges, the overall environment remains favorable, particularly for startups, as indicated by a 1st decile ranking in startup early survival rates. This dynamism is underscored by a high rate of new entrepreneurs and patent applications, contributing to a vibrant entrepreneurial landscape.
Despite facing labor force engagement challenges, with rankings in the 9th decile for unemployment, efforts are underway to enhance workforce skills, which are essential for attracting further investment. The region's strong job growth, ranked 12th over the past five years, coupled with accessible financing options, positions the Riverside-San Bernardino area as an attractive destination for businesses seeking growth opportunities in California.
In 2025, San Bernardino's small business landscape is poised for significant expansion, with projections indicating a 15% increase in small business establishments. This growth, underpinned by targeted investments in infrastructure and sector-specific opportunities, will create approximately 4,000 new jobs, thereby enhancing the overall economic stability of the region. As noted by the San Bernardino Economic Development Agency, "A thriving small business sector is essential for fostering innovation and community resilience, ultimately driving sustainable economic growth."
