Connexion Solutions Corporate Capital

Panama City Florida Small Business Growth Forecast 2025

panama city small business growth

Notable opportunities are emerging for small businesses in Panama City, Florida, as economic factors align—discover what’s driving this growth.

Highlights

In 2025, Panama City's small business growth is forecasted to thrive, influenced by Tyndall Air Force Base's $4.5 billion economic impact and a projected 2.55% population increase. This environment fosters opportunities in manufacturing, which added over 13,600 jobs in 2023 alone, reflecting sustained demand and significant contributions to the state's GDP. Concurrently, infrastructure development, including the expansion of key roadways and local amenities, will enhance community attractiveness. With approximately 58.76% of the population within the working-age demographic, the potential for entrepreneurial ventures remains robust, indicating a favorable landscape for business establishment and expansion. Further insights reveal additional growth factors.

You Need To Know

  • Economic growth driven by Tyndall AFB's expansion is expected to create substantial opportunities for small businesses in Panama City by 2025.
  • The rise in manufacturing jobs and investment, like Resia's $40M project, will stimulate local entrepreneurship and small business development.
  • Infrastructure improvements, including highway expansions and community projects, will enhance accessibility and attract more consumers to small businesses.
  • Population growth projections indicate increased demand for local goods and services, benefiting small businesses in various sectors.
  • A focus on workforce development and education will provide a skilled labor pool, supporting small business growth and sustainability in Panama City.

Economic Impact of Tyndall AFB

Tyndall AFB has had a staggering $4.5 billion economic impact on the Bay County region in 2023, and it's only set to grow. The base's reconstruction serves as an essential catalyst for job opportunities, directly supporting nearly 28,000 positions through construction-related expenditures and military spending. According to regional economic analysts, the influx of approximately 4,000 contractors over the next two-to-three years will not only bolster immediate employment but also stimulate local businesses reliant on increased economic activity.

Moreover, the arrival of F-35 fighter jet squadrons, anticipated to add around 2,000 military personnel, further enhances the labor market. This growth in military personnel, coupled with direct federal military spending, generates a reported 176,703 jobs in Northwest Florida, considerably impacting the local workforce. Local economic experts argue that the reconstruction of Tyndall AFB is essential for mitigating economic decline and fostering long-term stability in Bay County, particularly after the devastation of Hurricane Michael. The base's ongoing development contributes to a robust employment landscape, ensuring that both direct and indirect job opportunities continue to thrive, thereby solidifying Tyndall AFB's role as a cornerstone of the region's economic vitality. Additionally, the reconstruction efforts are expected to significantly boost the $2.31 million rehabilitation at the local airport, enhancing infrastructure that supports the growing economy.

Growth in Manufacturing Sector

Amidst the ongoing economic recovery in Panama City, the growth in the manufacturing sector stands out as an essential force driving local job creation and economic stability. As of September 2023, Florida's manufacturing employment has increased by 23.3% since 2014, adding 13,605 jobs in just nine months, which exemplifies the sector's resilience and potential.

Key factors contributing to this growth include:

  1. Higher wages associated with manufacturing jobs, which enhance local purchasing power.
  2. The sector's contribution of over $73 billion to Florida's GDP, surpassing tourism and agriculture.
  3. Continuous job growth, with 427,600 manufacturing jobs reported in May 2024, indicative of sustained demand.
  4. Initiatives like Resia's $40M investment in Bay County, projected to create 200 high-skilled jobs. Additionally, the manufacturing sector in Florida has seen 37 consecutive months of job growth, reflecting its robust performance.

These developments underscore the critical importance of workforce development strategies that aim to equip the local talent pool with necessary skills, thereby ensuring the manufacturing sector's growth is not only sustained but also inclusive. By fostering industry sector councils and enhancing educational pathways, Panama City can further solidify its position as a manufacturing hub, leading to increased job creation and economic prosperity.

Infrastructure Development Projects

In Panama City, ongoing infrastructure development projects are set to reshape the community and enhance local connectivity. The expansive U.S. Highway 98/Panama City Beach Parkway project, which is evolving from four to six lanes, represents a significant roadway expansion aimed at alleviating traffic congestion and improving emergency access. This project is segmented into three parts to facilitate funding, with the first two segments expected to complete by late 2027. During construction, temporary lane closures will occur, but at least one lane in each direction will remain open to guarantee continued accessibility.

In addition to roadway improvements, the McKenzie Park project embodies crucial park enhancements that will increase community engagement and recreational opportunities. This initiative includes the installation of new benches, trash receptacles, and playground facilities, all of which align with the Community Redevelopment Agency's goals for urban revitalization. Moreover, the Millville Waterfront Park Project and the Millville Gateway Beautification Project aim to enhance public spaces, fostering community cohesion and aesthetic appeal. Collectively, these infrastructure advancements not only support local business growth but also contribute to a more sustainable and connected Panama City. The Glenwood community revitalization efforts are also expected to stimulate economic growth by securing a grocery store as a tenant within a mixed-use area.

Population and Demographic Changes

As Panama City continues to evolve, its population is projected to grow considerably, reaching approximately 37,525 by 2025. This represents a 2.55% growth rate, indicative of significant population trends and demographic shifts that could influence local businesses. Understanding these changes is essential for entrepreneurs and investors alike.

  1. The median age in Panama City is currently 38.5 years, with 58.76% of the population falling within the working age group of 18-64 years.
  2. Children under 18 comprise 23.21% of the population, suggesting a robust youth market.
  3. Seniors aged 65 and over account for 18.03%, highlighting the importance of age-specific services and products.
  4. The largest demographic cohort is aged 25 to 29, representing 8.08% of the population, which may reflect potential workforce trends.

The projected population increase, alongside a dependency ratio of 61.1, underscores the shifting dynamics in the community. With a steady annual growth rate averaging between 2.3%-2.6% from 2024 to 2029, these demographic shifts present both opportunities and challenges for small businesses aiming to adapt to an evolving market landscape.

Economic Forecast and Trends

Panama City's economy is on the brink of substantial growth, fueled by significant infrastructure developments and a diverse industrial landscape. The ongoing expansion at Port Panama City, set to generate an impressive $1.6 billion economic impact and create 11,000 jobs, exemplifies the benefits of infrastructure investments, particularly those supported by Triumph funds, which have allocated over $254 million toward enhancing local facilities. Such strategic investments are essential for fostering economic diversification, as they not only bolster the manufacturing sector—currently supporting 56,000 jobs—but also enhance emerging industries, including technology and life sciences.

Moreover, workforce development remains a vital element in this economic transformation, evidenced by the annual influx of over 3,000 shifting military personnel and a significant commitment to education, which has received $295 million in Triumph funding. This funding supports training programs tailored to meet industry demands, particularly in aviation and healthcare, where an anticipated addition of 4,000 nurses will substantially enhance the local workforce. As Panama City continues to progress through targeted investments and a dedicated workforce, the region is poised for sustainable economic growth, benefiting small businesses and the broader community alike.

Our Closing Thoughts

As Panama City, Florida, approaches 2025, the convergence of military investment, manufacturing expansion, and infrastructure enhancement creates a dynamic landscape for small businesses. With Tyndall Air Force Base's revitalization projected to inject over $300 million into the local economy, and the manufacturing sector anticipated to grow by 15% annually, opportunities abound. Coupled with a population increase of approximately 5%, small businesses can thrive amidst these transformative developments, positioning themselves at the forefront of a burgeoning economic environment.

    Disclaimer: This information is for general knowledge and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice.
    Geoffery Campbell
    Geoffrey Campbell is a seasoned Financial Analyst at Connexion Solutions, bringing an impressive 35 years of experience in financial modeling to his role. Recognized as an expert in the field, Geoffrey specializes in developing sophisticated financial models that support strategic decision-making and enhance business performance.

    Throughout his career, Geoffrey has worked with a diverse range of industries, providing critical insights that help organizations optimize their financial strategies. His deep understanding of forecasting, budgeting, and valuation enables him to create models that accurately reflect market conditions and business dynamics.

    Geoffrey is committed to sharing his expertise with colleagues and clients alike, often conducting training sessions and workshops to enhance financial literacy within the organization. His analytical skills and attention to detail ensure that every model he develops is robust and reliable.

    Holding a degree in Finance, Geoffrey is passionate about leveraging technology and innovative approaches to enhance financial modeling practices. His extensive experience and dedication to excellence make him a pivotal asset to Connexion Solutions, where he continues to drive value through his analytical prowess.
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