On the horizon of 2025, Billings, Montana’s small business growth is poised for transformation, but what challenges and opportunities lie ahead?
In Billings, Montana, small business growth forecasts for 2025 reflect a moderated economic environment, with projected real GDP growth stabilizing at 2.5%. This growth will largely stem from the tech sector, which is expanding at a rate seven times faster than the overall economy, contributing approximately 2,000 new high-paying jobs. Additionally, various funding strategies, including state and federal grants, bolster local entrepreneurial ventures, as highlighted by the Big Sky Trust Fund. As employment dynamics shift, particularly with a projected 20% workforce retirement, understanding these multifaceted economic factors becomes essential for potential stakeholders seeking insight into future opportunities.
The current economic landscape in Montana shows a promising outlook for growth, despite some challenges. Projections indicate that real GDP growth is expected to rise to 2.7% in 2024 before moderating to 2.5% in 2025, suggesting a resilient economic framework capable of sustaining momentum against macroeconomic pressures. This growth trajectory is underpinned by Montana's evolution as a regional hub for commerce, healthcare, and education, thereby attracting significant investment in both government and services sectors. The Billings real estate market has shown steady growth, bolstered by increased demand and competitive bidding, which reflects the overall economic optimism in the state.
The Montana Department of Commerce has initiated programs aimed at fostering high-paying job creation while shifting from grants to loans, showcasing a strategic pivot in financial support for businesses. This initiative has been effective, creating over 1,000 jobs with starting wages exceeding $70,000. However, consumer spending in Montana has exhibited a slight decline, dropping from 2.5% in 2022 to 2.2% in 2023, indicating a shifting dynamic in spending patterns among residents. Despite these fluctuations, expectations remain optimistic, with a projected growth rate of 2.3% in consumer spending for 2024, further reinforcing the state's overall economic solidification in the coming years.
Employment trends in Billings reflect a dynamic landscape shaped by rapid growth in the tech industry and a looming workforce crisis. The labor market is experiencing a significant transformation, with the tech sector expanding seven times faster than Montana's overall economy. By 2025, you can expect over 2,000 high-paying tech jobs, mainly in fields like AI engineering, cloud architecture, and cybersecurity, with salaries ranging from $90,000 to over $200,000 based on experience.
However, these opportunities contrast sharply with the challenges posed by workforce demographics, as nearly 20% of the current workforce is set to retire in the next decade. The median age in Billings has risen to 41.1 years, highlighting the aging population that exacerbates the labor shortage. A notable deficit of approximately 1,500 cybersecurity professionals is anticipated by 2025, underscoring the urgent need for skilled workers. This projected 3.5 million unfilled cybersecurity positions indicates a growing global demand for specialists, further amplifying the local shortage.
As local universities work hard to equip graduates with relevant skills in cloud computing, AI integration, and programming languages, the demand for certifications such as CISSP and CEH underscores the evolving nature of recruitment criteria, necessitating continual adaptation to the changing employment landscape.
Across Billings, numerous initiatives are driving small business growth and supporting entrepreneurs. Central to these efforts are structured funding strategies, which include various state and federal grants, tax incentives, and loan packaging services offered by organizations such as Big Sky Economic Development and the Small Business Development Center. For instance, the Big Sky Trust Fund Job Creation grant program is instrumental in providing essential financial resources.
Furthermore, mentorship impact has proven to be a critical component of small business success, as mentorship programs from the Small Business Development Center and initiatives like Early-Stage Montana facilitate guidance from seasoned entrepreneurs. The Business Development Network, spearheaded by the Billings Chamber of Commerce, helps cultivate relationships among business owners, thereby enhancing networking opportunities that can lead to collaboration and innovation. Additionally, community resources such as local organizations provide valuable support and connections for emerging businesses.
Training programs tailored to specific industries, including tech workforce development through the Big Sky Code Academy, add an additional layer of support, ensuring that entrepreneurs have the necessary skills to thrive. Collectively, these business growth initiatives foster an environment conducive to entrepreneurial ventures, enhancing Billings' economic landscape as we approach 2025.
Billings is experiencing notable regional economic developments that are shaping its future landscape. The healthcare sector, which accounts for over 20% of jobs in Yellowstone County, is set to bolster further with the construction of a new $1 billion hospital scheduled to open in 2029, likely enhancing healthcare delivery and stimulating ancillary businesses throughout the region. This 737,000 square-foot facility not only addresses expanding healthcare needs but also highlights a strategic investment in technological advancements within the industry.
Simultaneously, tourism growth notably impacts Billings' economy, with over 2.6 million visitors annually contributing an impressive $621 million in local spending. In 2022, non-resident visitors generated $315 million in state and local taxes, indicating that tourism effectively subsidizes the tax burden for local households by over $721 annually. Additionally, the introduction of seven new hotels will elevate the region's total lodging capacity to over 5,100 guest rooms, addressing increasing visitor demand.
This dual emphasis on healthcare expansion and tourism growth not only fosters job creation but also reinforces the economic framework essential for sustained development in Billings.
The future economic forecasts for the Billings Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) indicate a complex landscape influenced by various factors, primarily the fluctuations within the oil industry, which has historically impacted growth patterns. As Billings ranked 371 out of 389 MSAs regarding the percentage change in real gross domestic product (RGDP), the region's economic resilience will increasingly depend on diversified future investments and strategic interventions, especially through federal incentives like Opportunity Zone Equity and New Market Tax Credits.
Moreover, while the MSA's unemployment rate has slightly decreased to 3.5%, it concurrently faces challenges related to a declining labor force participation rate, particularly among younger demographics, exacerbated by an increasing elderly dependency ratio. Statistically, the workforce aged 65-74 has risen by 11%, suggesting potential pressures on productivity and innovation.
In terms of housing, moderate growth projections indicating a 1.2% increase by September 2025 could signify stability in consumer confidence amidst volatile economic conditions. Ultimately, the interplay between aging workforce trends and the critical need for diversified investment will define the viability and resilience of Billings' economic landscape moving toward 2025.
To sum up, as Billings, Montana, anticipates a robust small business growth trajectory by 2025, it's worth noting that the region's unemployment rate is projected to stabilize at 3.5%, notably lower than the national average. This positive development reflects a favorable environment for entrepreneurship and innovation, bolstered by strategic initiatives and regional investments. With these dynamics at play, stakeholders should remain vigilant in harnessing opportunities to facilitate sustainable economic expansion in the coming years.
